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Doesn’t Look Favorable = DLF. India’s largest real estate developer DLF announced their 3rd quarter earnings this past week and it was not pretty.  I think we all understand the economic environment is grim and the real estate market is REALLY grim but hearing Rajiv Singh, DLF Vice Chairman, speak on CNBC-18 you get the sense it ain’t so bad…whatever.

There is no denying it, most real estate developers around the world and in India are living on borrowed time and borrowed money. Rajiv also stated in the same interview that he doesn’t expect homes prices to get cut beyond 20% yet they have a hugh amount of excess inventory.  Rajiv mentioned people are not buying because bank rates are too high, I think what’s high is either home prices or Rajiv or probably both.

Real estate projects can simply be classified as:

1. New – in today’s environment only a complete moron would loan a dime to a new project
2. Partial – Hugh dillema, throw good money after bad?
3. Completed – sell or lease at rock bottom prices, this screws up the initial project cash flow calculations. Existing tenants will ask for a rate negotiation (read – lower prices)

For DLF the numbers don’t add up and they are massively over leveraged which is not a good thing.  Will DLF or any Indian real estate company file for bankruptcy?  No chance, Indian corporate law is so convoluted that filing for bankrupty doesn’t seem to be an option, instead the company will just be a zombie of it’s former self.

Previous posts on DLF:
May 2, 2006 - India’s next crorepati (billionaire): KP Singh
June 8, 2007 - Yes, DLF. Really?
Oct 10, 2008 - Boom to Bust

Every year for the past several years I would make a New Years resolution to get organized, then I would download a bunch of Mac applications and get frustrated with them.  During the last half of December 2008, I decided to try 3 programs: OmniFocus, The Hit List and Things.  All 3 applications allow you to use the Getting Things Done (GTD) methodology from David Allen. I like to call it “Getting Shi!@# Done.”

OmniFocus (OF) from The Omni Group.  I’ve tried this program several times and loved that it was really just a blank sheet and you could customize it. OF has both a desktop and iPhone version that sync up. But for some reason I just couldn’t fit it into my daily work flow. Otherwise it’s a great program from a very talented company.

The Hit List (THL) from The Potion Factory. THL is in beta and has a great interface.  THL fit in with how I work, but it’s iPhone app has not been released yet and that was part of my criteria for picking an application.  The iPhone app is in the works but I really wanted something on day one – Jan 1, 2009.

This finally bring me to Things from Cultured Code. I have been a part of their beta program and have tried using Things several times over the past year.  As their official launch at Macworld 2009 neared, their code base got better and was very rock solid. I again started to use Things and was impressed how much better the application was when I first started using it. The Things interface is so simple you can start entering data right away without reading a “how to” guide. The interface was a natural fit for how I work and took me no time to get organized. The iPhone version synced via WiFi without any issues to my desktop.  The iPhone version has a couple features missing but the team at Cultured Code are making sure those get implemented ASAP.

Overall, I would highly recommend Things if you are looking to get organized.  Things desktop is USD 50 and Things iPhone/touch is USD 10.

Update: Watch the Things screencast I created

Debt is the new four letter word. Debt is affecting everyone from Mr. Consumer to private equity firms like Carlyle.  More precisely, massive debt is the real killer.  Mr. Consumer for years had been charging up a storm on his credit card, buying 4 dollar lattes, hitting the mall and buying every retarded gadget from the Sharper Image and then to top it off he went and bought a home with very little down.  The technical term for Mr. Consumer’s situation is called clusterfu!@#$.  The recipe to get out of this situation is almost like losing weight – eat less (earn more) and exercise more (spend less).  Easier said then done, most companies are cutting back on raises or just getting rid of people.  Any sort of government refund check will most likely go to paying down his debt and not new spending. That is the catch-22, most of the world economy revolves around the American consumer spending and not saving.  But, for the American consumer to get back on track they have to save and not spend. Policy makers around the world seem hell bent on lower interest rates and approving fiscal stimulus packages to boost the economy.

If I’m not mistaken, this whole credit crisis was about cheap money and loose lending practices.  Take India for example, the government has been reducing interest rates but no one seems to be buying houses.  The banks fault the property developers for overpriced inventory and the property developers blame the banks for high interest rates. Who is right? Both share some blame but it’s also the real estate companies that over built which is leading to excess capacity in most Tier 1 (Bombay, Delhi, etc…) and Tier 2 (Poona, Indore, etc…) cities. I don’t think stimulus packages will work and the only thing that will help is just the natural progression of the business cycle.  But, policy makers can’t sit around and wait, they have to show they are doing something which just seems to make things worse…think TARP.