Can You Spare a Million Bucks?

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If you were looking for a year end Top 10 list, sorry to have disappointed you. On the whole, 2011 was a year that many people would like to forget especially the Indian equity markets. On the upside, many technology startups such as Dropbox, Evernote and Twitter received even more funding. I would say 99% percent of the people were unhappy with 2011 and 1% were ecstatic about 2011.

A trend that I have noticed more and more during 2011 was in the area of seed funding for a startup. I’m not an angel investor but I get about 1-2 unsolicited pitches a week. During 2011, most were structured like this:

Idea Guy – I have a great idea and I need 1 million dollars to hire the entire team to do the work

Me – What do you mean by entire team?

Idea Guy – product team, engineering team, UI/UX team and marketing team

Me – So what is your role?

Idea Guy – I have the idea

Me – Do you have anything so far to show for it

Idea Guy – Of course not, hence I need the million dollars

Me – Do you have a website?

Idea Guy – No, I couldn’t get the domain name, I couldn’t figure out which hosting company, but I have a PowerPoint slide deck…

At this point, I usually just mentally shut down and hope my cafe latte is still hot enough to enjoy while being tortured into viewing the slide deck. I could spend hours talking about how bad most of these slide decks are but honestly that is not the most concerning thing. The most concerning thing is the “Idea guy” wants a million dollars and then everything will happen, that is not how it works. You need to bring some talent to the table.

I can understand if you don’t have the technical skills to acquire a domain name, start a blog or get a basic website running but you might have friends that can.  The early days of a startup are about conserving capital and trying to persuade people whether it’s to buy your product or get things done cheaply. This “idea guy” wanted to hire PaperPlane one of the best UI/UX companies in India to design the site, sure why not it ain’t his money.

Recently there was an article about Dropbox founder Drew Houston who had to hack the Apple operating system to understand how the desktop icon images worked. This was something that even other engineering teams at Apple couldn’t figure out. I’m assuming the VC firms are backing Drew as much as Dropbox, as they know what is possible with him.

Bottom line, if you can’t figure out how to get a blog started (or know someone that can) how in the hell are you going to run a company. I can envision that million dollars being spent very quickly, which is not what people want to see when they are investing in an idea, person or company.

 

Inside the “First” MF Global Collapse

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In 2005, my colleague and I partnered with Refco which at the time was the largest commodities brokers in the world to launch a new product in India…what could go wrong? I landed into India on October 1, 2005 and on October 10 a press release was issued that the CEO was resigning because of “accounting irregularities”. Whenever you hear “accounting irregularities” you can safely assume the worst possible outcome, a week later Refco filed chapter 11 bankrupty. Listening to the reports over the past two weeks about the impending collapse of MF Global was like déjà vu for me, this is actually their second collapse.

The latest collapse is even more sinister then the first one. At least during the Refco collapse Phil Bennett took a loan to cover his proprietary trading (aka prop trading). However, it appears MF Global took customer segregated funds to shore up their losing prop trades on bonds which is hugh no-no. The reports are still filtering in as to what exactly happened and who knew what. However, this quote from a lawyer really ticked me off “To the best knowledge of management, there is no shortfall”. A very carefully worded statement which essentially says “don’t hold the management team accountable”.

When working with Refco during the transition to Man Financial (which eventually became MF Global) it was surreal. I just landed into India with plans to stay for 6 months while we got everything up and running. And within 10 days my dreams turned to despair. I had a great vantage point as I was sitting next to Vineet Bhatnagar, MD of Refco-Sify India, as everything was collapsing around the world for Refco. We would hear reports of what was happening via the newswire or rumors from the “New York guys” but during all this craziness Vineet was calm and cool throughout the entire ordeal. He gave interview after interview saying how the India operations were “ring-fenced” and things would be back to normal. Certain parts of the business came back to normalcy faster then others, it was a trust thing. I think the institutional guys understood their money was safe but many retail clients didn’t care what was being said.

In any event, our new fund was completely crushed…100% wanted their money back NOW. All the investors got their money back and said they would re-invest once the dust had settled. Sadly, some of India’s most prolific investors who were in the first fund did not return for the second fund which we started in March 2006 under the Man Financial banner.

Right now there are two types of people that exist at MF Global-Sify India, people that witnessed the first collapse and the “new guys.” Anyone who was there during the first collapse is a little concerned but have seen this movie before. The “new guy” is probably shitting in his pants. Having worked with the Indian management team there is no doubt they are top notch and everything continues to be above the board. There was a report in DNA Money newspaper that Vineet “had put in his papers”, I almost choked on my morning coffee when I read that. Not because “oh my god he is leaving” but rather “oh my god he would NEVER leave India”. Of course, people love sensational headlines and the MF Global collapse definately provides it.

Most Indians Are Horrible at Math

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When I was growing up in Indiana I was one of the few minorities in a town of 12,000 people. I would always hear the typical stereotypes about Asians being smart in math. Some how math was never my strongest subject and during my adolescence years it was highlighted quite frequently. My math teacher, Mr. Brother’s would hand out the graded tests based on your grade (highest to lowest) and invariably I would get back my test in the bottom 25%, god I hated that fu!@&% math class so much. However, it’s probably why I gravitated towards computers and Lotus 1-2-3. Funny thing, my hatred for math started even before I got to Indiana.

When I lived in Chicago one of our closest family friends had a son that was basically a supercomputer made to look like a dosa eating South Indian. Shyam was the all-star brainy kid of Chicago and I’m sure I was not the only kid in the greater Chicagoland metro area to get compared to him. Typical comments like “Well, Shyam can spell that” or “Shyam did 1599 on his SAT, he missed a point because he was busy writing to the New England Journal of Medicine about curing cancer.” At one point I thought the Chicago suburb of Schaumburg (pronounced “shyam-berg”) was named after him because he was so damn smart.

When I moved to India in 2005, I thought I would be surrounded by human Intel dual-core processors that would put Excel to shame. Slowly though I started to realize that only a subset of Indians are good at math. The more I looked around, the more I realized Indians are generally REALLY bad at math. This assumption was not from intensive research but looking at one simple product – the credit card.

Everyone wants to live the American dream which is really just consumerism fueled by credit cards and Indians are no different. 10 years ago credit cards were nowhere to be found in India but once the young work force started to work in call centers they started getting credit cards. The theory is these kids were pushing credit cards to Mike in Montana during the night at their call center job (remember the 12.5 hour time difference) and during the day they wanted to live the “American dream” so they would charge up a storm on their own credit cards.

Everything up to this point seems legitimate until you open the first bill and see the interest rate the banks charge. I got my first Indian credit card about 3 years back and almost had a heart attack while looking at my monthly statement where it said they would charge me 3.3% per month. I have NEVER in my life paid a nickel in interest but I was shocked at the arrogance of the banks to charge such high interest rates. It’s also part marketing, they never talk about the annual rate because that would scare people off. Instead, when people see 3.3% per month they probably think its okay and harmless. However, when you do the quick math of 3.3 times 12 you come up with 39.6% per year to have the luxury of carrying a balance.

Charging 39.6% is almost criminal. Oh wait, it is criminal but only if you take money from a microfinance institution like SKS Microfinance. Legally, if you take a loan from SKS they cannot charge you more then 26% a year, granted we are talking about different needs. Microfinance is about helping people get out of poverty, whereas credit cards seem to be helping people go into poverty.

Being in India, I can finally feel smart when it comes to numbers.

White on Brown

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Mark Mobuis

Since 2005, India has been the destination of choice for institutional money mangers to invest their clients money. As a refresher, India was one of the 4 countries mentioned in the now famous 2003 report from Goldman Sachs titled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050.”  The acronym BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. It’s a report that many managers used as their investment thesis for entering the 4 countries mentioned and led one of the authors Roopa Purushothaman to land a gig with the largest retailer in India – The Future Group.

I’m all for research reports and believe it serves a purpose for investors that might not have a clue about certain markets and/or companies that are operate in those markets. These country reports are all very similar, they are super positive about the growth of a country and how big these markets are. However, what is really annoying is when foreign analysts, fund managers or super investors fly to India and tell Indians how their markets operate. It’s what I call “white on brown” – white guys telling brown people about their own markets.

Mark Mobius is the most recent fund manager to fall into this category. I have a lot of respect for Mark Mobius who is the emerging markets rockstar with Franklin Templeton where he oversees $50 billion in assets for them. In fact I got a chance to hear him speak in Bombay in October 2007 and was quite impressed. Recently in an interview with the Times of India he talked about his investment philosophy in India and was asked about corruption in India, he had the following view on corruption:

Corruption is rife everywhere in the world. It’s only when it really impacts the process of a business in a big way, you’ve got a problem. But that’s not the case here.

I read that quote and had to re-read it to see if he was talking about India or some other country. Mark, If you can’t speak the truth then don’t say anything but don’t insult my intelligence. Currently, India is embroiled in the largest corruption case involving one of the darling sectors for institutional fund managers – the telecom industry.

Ex-telecom minister A. Raja, industrialist Anil Ambani and heaven forbid Ratan Tata are being brought in for government questioning on how telecom licenses for the 2G mobile spectrum were allocated. If Ratan Tata who runs the Tata Group which is the largest business house in India and viewed as the most honest and above corruption is being questioned, it shows how wide the net of corruption is and it absolutely affects the process of a business in a big way. From what telecom insiders are saying the corruption is only going to get deeper and affect more individuals and companies.

Mark is correct, corruption is everywhere even in the US but happens at such a high level it doesn’t directly affect the average US citizen.  In India corruption starts at home, want to get a phone connection? want to get a gas connection? You better be ready to slip some cash to these service providers to get service or “your file” might get lost. Some say that’s not corruption but just paying for a speedier “value added service” but don’t fool yourself, the entire value chain is corrupt. I don’t fully blame Mark for his myopic view on corruption because when he visits a country like India, the red carpet is rolled out for him.  Government officials want his stamp of approval, companies want him to invest in their companies and the press wants something to print. Mark doesn’t have to really get his hands dirty when he comes to India, he gets to view everything through a rose colored lens and everything delivered on a silver platter.

Any fund manager that says corruption is not a major issue I offer you a challenge. Buy a flat in Thane and commute for 6 months to South Bombay for work.  Let’s see how you deal with the following:

  • Getting your flat registered without paying a bribe
  • Landline MTNL phone connection
  • Gas cylinder or piped connection
  • Power cuts (corrupt power grid)
  • Water shortages
  • Commuting by car (road infrastructure badly maintained)
  • Commuting by local trains? Don’t even try it.

Staying at the Taj is not a proxy for how the majority of Indians live, work, play and learn (yes, that’s an old Cisco marketing campaign slogan).


NOTE
: If you are interested in downloading the BRICs report “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050″ you can download it here.

The above article was syndicated on Huffington Post.

The Road to Financial Freedom

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Recently, I was invited to speak at Reliance Industries’ (RIL) corporate campus located in Navi Mumbai. It’s ironic given that our office (MProfit)  is just a couple buildings away from where Mukesh Ambani works out of – Maker IV in Nariman Point.

The topic was about personal finance and the presentation was titled “The Road to Financial Freedom.” It was a 2 hour presentation and the slides were only part of the overall presentation. Many people commented they liked the personal stories that were sprinkled through out the presentation.  The presentation will be an ongoing event at the Reliance corporate campus which has over 40,000 employees. Below is the presentation that I gave:

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