A trend that I have noticed more and more during 2011 was in the area of seed funding for a startup. I’m not an angel investor but I get about 1-2 unsolicited pitches a week. During 2011, most were structured like this:

Idea Guy – I have a great idea and I need 1 million dollars to hire the entire team to do the work

Me – What do you mean by entire team?

Idea Guy – product team, engineering team, UI/UX team and marketing team

Me – So what is your role?

Idea Guy – I have the idea

Me – Do you have anything so far to show for it

Idea Guy – Of course not, hence I need the million dollars

Me – Do you have a website?

Idea Guy – No, I couldn’t get the domain name, I couldn’t figure out which hosting company, but I have a PowerPoint slide deck…

At this point, I usually just mentally shut down and hope my cafe latte is still hot enough to enjoy while being tortured into viewing the slide deck. I could spend hours talking about how bad most of these slide decks are but honestly that is not the most concerning thing. The most concerning thing is the “Idea guy” wants a million dollars and then everything will happen, that is not how it works. You need to bring some talent to the table.

I can understand if you don’t have the technical skills to acquire a domain name, start a blog or get a basic website running but you might have friends that can.  The early days of a startup are about conserving capital and trying to persuade people whether it’s to buy your product or get things done cheaply. This “idea guy” wanted to hire PaperPlane one of the best UI/UX companies in India to design the site, sure why not it ain’t his money.

Recently there was an article about Dropbox founder Drew Houston who had to hack the Apple operating system to understand how the desktop icon images worked. This was something that even other engineering teams at Apple couldn’t figure out. I’m assuming the VC firms are backing Drew as much as Dropbox, as they know what is possible with him.

Bottom line, if you can’t figure out how to get a blog started (or know someone that can) how in the hell are you going to run a company. I can envision that million dollars being spent very quickly, which is not what people want to see when they are investing in an idea, person or company.

The latest collapse is even more sinister then the first one. At least during the Refco collapse Phil Bennett took a loan to cover his proprietary trading (aka prop trading). However, it appears MF Global took customer segregated funds to shore up their losing prop trades on bonds which is hugh no-no. The reports are still filtering in as to what exactly happened and who knew what. However, this quote from a lawyer really ticked me off “To the best knowledge of management, there is no shortfall”. A very carefully worded statement which essentially says “don’t hold the management team accountable”.

When working with Refco during the transition to Man Financial (which eventually became MF Global) it was surreal. I just landed into India with plans to stay for 6 months while we got everything up and running. And within 10 days my dreams turned to despair. I had a great vantage point as I was sitting next to Vineet Bhatnagar, MD of Refco-Sify India, as everything was collapsing around the world for Refco. We would hear reports of what was happening via the newswire or rumors from the “New York guys” but during all this craziness Vineet was calm and cool throughout the entire ordeal. He gave interview after interview saying how the India operations were “ring-fenced” and things would be back to normal. Certain parts of the business came back to normalcy faster then others, it was a trust thing. I think the institutional guys understood their money was safe but many retail clients didn’t care what was being said.

In any event, our new fund was completely crushed…100% wanted their money back NOW. All the investors got their money back and said they would re-invest once the dust had settled. Sadly, some of India’s most prolific investors who were in the first fund did not return for the second fund which we started in March 2006 under the Man Financial banner.

Right now there are two types of people that exist at MF Global-Sify India, people that witnessed the first collapse and the “new guys.” Anyone who was there during the first collapse is a little concerned but have seen this movie before. The “new guy” is probably shitting in his pants. Having worked with the Indian management team there is no doubt they are top notch and everything continues to be above the board. There was a report in DNA Money newspaper that Vineet “had put in his papers”, I almost choked on my morning coffee when I read that. Not because “oh my god he is leaving” but rather “oh my god he would NEVER leave India”. Of course, people love sensational headlines and the MF Global collapse definately provides it.

When I lived in Chicago one of our closest family friends had a son that was basically a supercomputer made to look like a dosa eating South Indian. Shyam was the all-star brainy kid of Chicago and I’m sure I was not the only kid in the greater Chicagoland metro area to get compared to him. Typical comments like “Well, Shyam can spell that” or “Shyam did 1599 on his SAT, he missed a point because he was busy writing to the New England Journal of Medicine about curing cancer.” At one point I thought the Chicago suburb of Schaumburg (pronounced “shyam-berg”) was named after him because he was so damn smart.

When I moved to India in 2005, I thought I would be surrounded by human Intel dual-core processors that would put Excel to shame. Slowly though I started to realize that only a subset of Indians are good at math. The more I looked around, the more I realized Indians are generally REALLY bad at math. This assumption was not from intensive research but looking at one simple product – the credit card.

Everyone wants to live the American dream which is really just consumerism fueled by credit cards and Indians are no different. 10 years ago credit cards were nowhere to be found in India but once the young work force started to work in call centers they started getting credit cards. The theory is these kids were pushing credit cards to Mike in Montana during the night at their call center job (remember the 12.5 hour time difference) and during the day they wanted to live the “American dream” so they would charge up a storm on their own credit cards.

Everything up to this point seems legitimate until you open the first bill and see the interest rate the banks charge. I got my first Indian credit card about 3 years back and almost had a heart attack while looking at my monthly statement where it said they would charge me 3.3% per month. I have NEVER in my life paid a nickel in interest but I was shocked at the arrogance of the banks to charge such high interest rates. It’s also part marketing, they never talk about the annual rate because that would scare people off. Instead, when people see 3.3% per month they probably think its okay and harmless. However, when you do the quick math of 3.3 times 12 you come up with 39.6% per year to have the luxury of carrying a balance.

Charging 39.6% is almost criminal. Oh wait, it is criminal but only if you take money from a microfinance institution like SKS Microfinance. Legally, if you take a loan from SKS they cannot charge you more then 26% a year, granted we are talking about different needs. Microfinance is about helping people get out of poverty, whereas credit cards seem to be helping people go into poverty.

Being in India, I can finally feel smart when it comes to numbers.

Mark Mobuis

Since 2005, India has been the destination of choice for institutional money mangers to invest their clients money. As a refresher, India was one of the 4 countries mentioned in the now famous 2003 report from Goldman Sachs titled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050.”  The acronym BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. It’s a report that many managers used as their investment thesis for entering the 4 countries mentioned and led one of the authors Roopa Purushothaman to land a gig with the largest retailer in India – The Future Group.

I’m all for research reports and believe it serves a purpose for investors that might not have a clue about certain markets and/or companies that are operate in those markets. These country reports are all very similar, they are super positive about the growth of a country and how big these markets are. However, what is really annoying is when foreign analysts, fund managers or super investors fly to India and tell Indians how their markets operate. It’s what I call “white on brown” – white guys telling brown people about their own markets.

Mark Mobius is the most recent fund manager to fall into this category. I have a lot of respect for Mark Mobius who is the emerging markets rockstar with Franklin Templeton where he oversees $50 billion in assets for them. In fact I got a chance to hear him speak in Bombay in October 2007 and was quite impressed. Recently in an interview with the Times of India he talked about his investment philosophy in India and was asked about corruption in India, he had the following view on corruption:

Corruption is rife everywhere in the world. It’s only when it really impacts the process of a business in a big way, you’ve got a problem. But that’s not the case here.

I read that quote and had to re-read it to see if he was talking about India or some other country. Mark, If you can’t speak the truth then don’t say anything but don’t insult my intelligence. Currently, India is embroiled in the largest corruption case involving one of the darling sectors for institutional fund managers – the telecom industry.

Ex-telecom minister A. Raja, industrialist Anil Ambani and heaven forbid Ratan Tata are being brought in for government questioning on how telecom licenses for the 2G mobile spectrum were allocated. If Ratan Tata who runs the Tata Group which is the largest business house in India and viewed as the most honest and above corruption is being questioned, it shows how wide the net of corruption is and it absolutely affects the process of a business in a big way. From what telecom insiders are saying the corruption is only going to get deeper and affect more individuals and companies.

Mark is correct, corruption is everywhere even in the US but happens at such a high level it doesn’t directly affect the average US citizen.  In India corruption starts at home, want to get a phone connection? want to get a gas connection? You better be ready to slip some cash to these service providers to get service or “your file” might get lost. Some say that’s not corruption but just paying for a speedier “value added service” but don’t fool yourself, the entire value chain is corrupt. I don’t fully blame Mark for his myopic view on corruption because when he visits a country like India, the red carpet is rolled out for him.  Government officials want his stamp of approval, companies want him to invest in their companies and the press wants something to print. Mark doesn’t have to really get his hands dirty when he comes to India, he gets to view everything through a rose colored lens and everything delivered on a silver platter.

Any fund manager that says corruption is not a major issue I offer you a challenge. Buy a flat in Thane and commute for 6 months to South Bombay for work.  Let’s see how you deal with the following:

• Getting your flat registered without paying a bribe
• Landline MTNL phone connection
• Gas cylinder or piped connection
• Power cuts (corrupt power grid)
• Water shortages
• Commuting by car (road infrastructure badly maintained)
• Commuting by local trains? Don’t even try it.

Staying at the Taj is not a proxy for how the majority of Indians live, work, play and learn (yes, that’s an old Cisco marketing campaign slogan).

NOTE: If you are interested in downloading the BRICs report “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050″ you can download it here.

The above article was syndicated on Huffington Post.

The topic was about personal finance and the presentation was titled “The Road to Financial Freedom.” It was a 2 hour presentation and the slides were only part of the overall presentation. Many people commented they liked the personal stories that were sprinkled through out the presentation.  The presentation will be an ongoing event at the Reliance corporate campus which has over 40,000 employees. Below is the presentation that I gave:

- If all goes well, Clarium might one day manage as much as $10 billion
- If Facebook one day pulls off a deal like YouTube’s, Thiel would pocket about $100 million.

Now in January 2011 the roles have reversed, most articles about Peter focus on his Facebook investment and don’t talk much about Clarium Capital his global macro hedge fund. Recently, Bloomberg online had an article about Clarium and the numbers they presented were jaw-dropping to say the least. Clarium’s assets under management (AUM) have dived 90% from a peak of USD 7.2 billion to USD 681 million, a combination of bad bets and customers hitting the exit button.

He is certainly trying to stem the losses, Peter hired Patrick Kenary from Man Investments. Man Investment’s is the mega alternative investment management firm that practically invented algorithmic trading via their AHL acquisition. Having someone with that pedigree is nothing to sneeze at.

In the end, I’m sure most people are sticking around with Clarium hoping that Peter might have another Facebook type investment where they can roll their assets into. Guys like Buffet, Roberton, Rogers and Soros make investing look really easy but when you got billions on the line it’s a very different ball game then trying to launch/run an internet company.

Victor recently announced he was going to give back to the community and teach a lucky few how to trade using his proprietary trading methods. Even more exciting, is my ex-colleague Michael Martin will be presenting with him. Mike and I launched India’s first algo/quant commodity fund back in the day.

The Master Class will be taught in Manhattan in early Feb 2011, if you want more information I recommend checking out Mike’s website – MartinKronicle.

Article 1: NY Times. Nov. 26, 2010. A Dying Banker’s Last Instructions. Gordon Murray was a hotshot at Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Credit Suisse First Boston. Even though he was in the business for over 25 years his own finances were pretty haphazard and realized most investment advice is skewed in favor of the advisor. Meaning the advisors select products that maximize the advisors returns not yours. The general theme of the article is that no one can predict the future with any regularity, so why would you think that active managers can beat their respective indexes over time?

Article 2: SF Mag. Dec 2006. The best investment advice you’ll never get. Google can afford to bring in the best investment advisors and they did right before their IPO. Most of the big names said the same thing:

Put your savings into some indexed mutual funds, which will make you just as much money (if not more) at much less cost by following the market’s natural ebb and flow, and get on with building Google.

I couldn’t agree more.

For most people getting an index fund that tracks the entire market is the way to go. I believe picking a basket of stocks today and saying it’s part of your long-term portfolio is just plain stupid, it might have worked in the past but there are to many new factors that might skew the 10-30 year horizon for investing.

Case in point, Skype filed their S-1 document in August with the intention of going IPO very soon. Skype is an amazing technology/service and I have been using them for many years, but would I buy their shares during the IPO? no chance.  Do you honestly think Skype will be around 10-15 years from now? I doubt it, the speed with which internet technologies move, Skype could be outdated in 5 years. An IPO is simply a way for founders to get liquidity, plain and simple. Of course, everyone will point to a Google or the highly anticipated Facebook IPO but those are far and few between.

Let’s forget technology for a while and focus on what made America great – the car industry. If you had GM shares from the first IPO they would be worthless today. In a cruel joke, the US government took over GM and then re-IPO’d the shares in the world’s largest IPO a couple weeks back. I would love to ask those fund managers back in 2000 where GM would be in 10 years.

It’s not just the US, look at the current flavor in India – microfinance.  3 months back everyone was tripping over each other to praise SKS Microfinance and the feel good story of helping poor woman in India make a living. Now the stock is down over 20% because the business model is not healthy…what? SKS has been around for 12 years and somehow in the last 90 days their business model is out of whack?  I would say it has more todo with politics and money, people saw how much money SKS made in the IPO and they felt left out.

So what is an investor to do? As I said before put most of your equity allocation into an index fund and forget it.  Then if you have the urge to gamble, put 10-15% of that equity allocation into investments you track on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. Activities can include trading stocks based on information you get or the latest algo-trading genius or some new IPO to flip. This approach will give you the “feel” of the market and yet have most of your equity investments in an index fund.

In India, ETFs are relatively unknown and most of the ETFs have been passive index funds tracking the Sensex or Nifty. Benchmark has been the 800 lb gorilla in the Indian ETF space with their Nifty BeES which tracks the Nifty index. The MOSt Shares M50 is one of the first actively managed ETFs in India. Which means that a fund manager, Rajnish Rastogi, is actively managing the money and can tweak the investment model in real time. According to Rastogi’s LinkedIn profile he “developed the first (worldwide) fundamentally enhanced index and obtained regulatory approval to manage an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks it.” If you are looking for more details about the ETF you can visit their site and download the mind numbing PDFs.

For me what is interesting is seeing the ETF space grow in India. ETFs typically have a lower cost (known as expense ratio in the biz) and can be traded via your local stockbroker. When people ask for investing advice, I give them my 3 stage process:

1. Absolute beginner – get an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the index (Benchmark Nifty BeES is an example)
2. Intermediate – broadly invest in ETFs or mutual funds (for example: Reliance Growth Fund or MOSt Shares M50)
3. Expert or gambler – invest directly into the stock market by picking the stocks yourself

I will be tracking the MOSt Shares M50 to see how it outperforms against the Nifty. According to them, they will pick the same stocks in the Nifty 50 index but “remix” the index. Would I recommend this product? Potentially, but I need to see how the ETF stacks up against the index and more importantly does the ETF have enough daily trading liquidity.

For more information on how ETFs got started checkout Wikipedia.

If these orders were executed within milliseconds, then how the hell are we still trying to figure out the cause 48 hours later.  I’m sure a lot has todo with ECN’s, which is where about 60% of all trades now take place. ECN’s provide a way for traders to be not so transparent with their trades. If algorithmic trading funds are called black boxes then ECN’s are the mother of all black boxes.

What we have experienced over the past 18 months in the financial markets seems to have a similar thread – transparency. The entire CDO complex was opaque since they were not listed on an exchange and only after it blew up did we start to learn what was happening.

True transparency leads to quicker price discovery and that’s the problem. You can’t make a boat load of money if everyone knows what you are doing. That’s the struggle of Wall Street vs Main Street, Wall Street likes the current structure and Main Street wants to open it up. Since the sub-prime meltdown NOT ONE rule has been passed to regulate the CDO market, however the US Government has bailed out Wall Street to the tune of over $1 Trillion.

I really hope the SEC makes an example of this ridiculous 1,000 point dip and specifically names the client, the broker/dealer and where the trades took place. Let the transparency begin with this government inquiry.