celestri.org

For all the talk about companies coming to an emerging market like India and setting up shop, no one has been more passive aggressive then the Volkswagen Group. VW is most famously known for its Beetle – one of the best selling cars of all time at over 21 million units. In a bid to move beyond the Beetle, VW in the 90′s started to acquire many brands and their complete portfolio is quite impressive: Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, SEAT, Skoda and VW. The VW Group also owns 49.9% of Porsche and set to take 100% ownership in the near future. The linkage between VW and Porsche goes way back, VW was founded by Ferdinand Porsche. Then Ferdinand went on to start Porsche where his son created the iconic 911. Even today the bonds are strong, the Porsche Cayenne and VW Touareg share the same chassis (platform in car speak).

Long Term Commitment
Enough of the history lesson, back to VW’s big bet on India. VW’s foray into India started in 2001 when it launched the Skoda brand and started selling the Octavia. Around 2007, the VW Group also added Audi, Bentley and VW to their Indian product line. These cars were available by importing them individually, however servicing was always an issue since they didn’t have official dealers on the ground in India. In another sign that VW is here for the long haul it opened a massive manufacturing facility in Chakan (near Pune) in 2009 and spent USD $500 million in the process. Towards the end of 2011, VW will add the high-performance brand Lamborghini to the mix. They will most likely unveil the first Lamborghini showrooms when they ship the highly anticipated fire breathing 691hp Aventador to India.

Breakout Hit
In the 4 door mid-luxury segment, the market leader for years has been the Honda City. The break out hit for VW has been the Vento which was introduced in 2010 and already has beaten the Honda City as the number 1 selling car in that segment. The Vento’s success is a combination of Honda lagging and VW bringing the right product to the market, namely a diesel engine. With petrol prices only going up VW was right to tap into the Indian psyche of affordability. The Honda City has been around since 1998 and all the brand loyalty it built up went down the drain once the Vento was launched and petrol prices started to rise. Honda hit back in early June 2011 with price cuts by attributing it to “cost reduction efforts in the supply chain” which sounded like public relations speak then reality. But it didn’t matter, by then the damage was done and the Vento took the top spot.

Audi’s Rise
Around the world Audi has always been number 3 when compared to the more well known German brands of Mercedes and BMW. However, that is changing in India partly because Audi was able to capitalize on the new designs featuring the “LED eyelids” that are now copied by every other car company. In addition, the Japanese strategy of not bringing their luxury brands of Acura, Lexus and Infiniti to India was a missed opportunity that Audi used towards its advantage. Toyota which has been in India since 1997 has built a large distribution channel and could have easily used that existing network to seamlessly introduce the Lexus brand but failed to do so. Lastly, Audi got some great mileage with their feel good advertising campaign featuring cricketer Ravi Shastri. Ravi was shown sitting on an Audi 100 on the cricket field when India won the World Championship of Cricket in 1985 where he was selected as the man of the match (most valuable player). Obviously it was unplanned and Audi capitalized on the imagery.

Market Segmentation
Possibly the only issue with the VW Group’s arrival into India is their market segmentation for their brands. When Skoda first came to India, it’s reputation in the Western European countries was not very high and thought of as a sub-standard product. However, under the VW umbrella it slowly upgraded its perception and in India it’s often thought of as a premium brand. Many consumers gravitate towards the  Skoda Superb who want luxury but want to “fly under the radar” and not appear to flashy. With the arrival of Audi and VW the lines of market segmentation have started to blur. The Audi A4, Skoda Superb and VW Passat are all very similar and in fact share the same chassis. And therein lies the problem, if a consumer wants to spend Rs. 30 lakhs on a car which one – A4, Superb or Passat?

Summary
Overall, the timing of VW’s entry into India couldn’t have been more perfect as other competitors have been busy with their own problems. The American automotive giants are dealing with their domestic demand issues. The Japanese automakers are taking a very slow approach to India when it comes to their luxury brands – Acura, Lexus and Infiniti.  Lastly, the German automakers Mercedes and BMW have been battling for the top spot for number of cars sold in India. BMW took the crown with over 6,200 cars sold in 2010, which is a very small piece of the overall Indian car market. Since the VW Group has many brands and able to target a much wider audience it will most likely lead overall sales in the years to come.

The above article was syndicated on VCCircle.com.

When I was growing up in Indiana I was one of the few minorities in a town of 12,000 people. I would always hear the typical stereotypes about Asians being smart in math. Some how math was never my strongest subject and during my adolescence years it was highlighted quite frequently. My math teacher, Mr. Brother’s would hand out the graded tests based on your grade (highest to lowest) and invariably I would get back my test in the bottom 25%, god I hated that fu!@&% math class so much. However, it’s probably why I gravitated towards computers and Lotus 1-2-3. Funny thing, my hatred for math started even before I got to Indiana.

When I lived in Chicago one of our closest family friends had a son that was basically a supercomputer made to look like a dosa eating South Indian. Shyam was the all-star brainy kid of Chicago and I’m sure I was not the only kid in the greater Chicagoland metro area to get compared to him. Typical comments like “Well, Shyam can spell that” or “Shyam did 1599 on his SAT, he missed a point because he was busy writing to the New England Journal of Medicine about curing cancer.” At one point I thought the Chicago suburb of Schaumburg (pronounced “shyam-berg”) was named after him because he was so damn smart.

When I moved to India in 2005, I thought I would be surrounded by human Intel dual-core processors that would put Excel to shame. Slowly though I started to realize that only a subset of Indians are good at math. The more I looked around, the more I realized Indians are generally REALLY bad at math. This assumption was not from intensive research but looking at one simple product – the credit card.

Everyone wants to live the American dream which is really just consumerism fueled by credit cards and Indians are no different. 10 years ago credit cards were nowhere to be found in India but once the young work force started to work in call centers they started getting credit cards. The theory is these kids were pushing credit cards to Mike in Montana during the night at their call center job (remember the 12.5 hour time difference) and during the day they wanted to live the “American dream” so they would charge up a storm on their own credit cards.

Everything up to this point seems legitimate until you open the first bill and see the interest rate the banks charge. I got my first Indian credit card about 3 years back and almost had a heart attack while looking at my monthly statement where it said they would charge me 3.3% per month. I have NEVER in my life paid a nickel in interest but I was shocked at the arrogance of the banks to charge such high interest rates. It’s also part marketing, they never talk about the annual rate because that would scare people off. Instead, when people see 3.3% per month they probably think its okay and harmless. However, when you do the quick math of 3.3 times 12 you come up with 39.6% per year to have the luxury of carrying a balance.

Charging 39.6% is almost criminal. Oh wait, it is criminal but only if you take money from a microfinance institution like SKS Microfinance. Legally, if you take a loan from SKS they cannot charge you more then 26% a year, granted we are talking about different needs. Microfinance is about helping people get out of poverty, whereas credit cards seem to be helping people go into poverty.

Being in India, I can finally feel smart when it comes to numbers.

Mark Mobuis

Since 2005, India has been the destination of choice for institutional money mangers to invest their clients money. As a refresher, India was one of the 4 countries mentioned in the now famous 2003 report from Goldman Sachs titled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050.”  The acronym BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. It’s a report that many managers used as their investment thesis for entering the 4 countries mentioned and led one of the authors Roopa Purushothaman to land a gig with the largest retailer in India – The Future Group.

I’m all for research reports and believe it serves a purpose for investors that might not have a clue about certain markets and/or companies that are operate in those markets. These country reports are all very similar, they are super positive about the growth of a country and how big these markets are. However, what is really annoying is when foreign analysts, fund managers or super investors fly to India and tell Indians how their markets operate. It’s what I call “white on brown” – white guys telling brown people about their own markets.

Mark Mobius is the most recent fund manager to fall into this category. I have a lot of respect for Mark Mobius who is the emerging markets rockstar with Franklin Templeton where he oversees $50 billion in assets for them. In fact I got a chance to hear him speak in Bombay in October 2007 and was quite impressed. Recently in an interview with the Times of India he talked about his investment philosophy in India and was asked about corruption in India, he had the following view on corruption:

Corruption is rife everywhere in the world. It’s only when it really impacts the process of a business in a big way, you’ve got a problem. But that’s not the case here.

I read that quote and had to re-read it to see if he was talking about India or some other country. Mark, If you can’t speak the truth then don’t say anything but don’t insult my intelligence. Currently, India is embroiled in the largest corruption case involving one of the darling sectors for institutional fund managers – the telecom industry.

Ex-telecom minister A. Raja, industrialist Anil Ambani and heaven forbid Ratan Tata are being brought in for government questioning on how telecom licenses for the 2G mobile spectrum were allocated. If Ratan Tata who runs the Tata Group which is the largest business house in India and viewed as the most honest and above corruption is being questioned, it shows how wide the net of corruption is and it absolutely affects the process of a business in a big way. From what telecom insiders are saying the corruption is only going to get deeper and affect more individuals and companies.

Mark is correct, corruption is everywhere even in the US but happens at such a high level it doesn’t directly affect the average US citizen.  In India corruption starts at home, want to get a phone connection? want to get a gas connection? You better be ready to slip some cash to these service providers to get service or “your file” might get lost. Some say that’s not corruption but just paying for a speedier “value added service” but don’t fool yourself, the entire value chain is corrupt. I don’t fully blame Mark for his myopic view on corruption because when he visits a country like India, the red carpet is rolled out for him.  Government officials want his stamp of approval, companies want him to invest in their companies and the press wants something to print. Mark doesn’t have to really get his hands dirty when he comes to India, he gets to view everything through a rose colored lens and everything delivered on a silver platter.

Any fund manager that says corruption is not a major issue I offer you a challenge. Buy a flat in Thane and commute for 6 months to South Bombay for work.  Let’s see how you deal with the following:

• Getting your flat registered without paying a bribe
• Landline MTNL phone connection
• Gas cylinder or piped connection
• Power cuts (corrupt power grid)
• Water shortages
• Commuting by car (road infrastructure badly maintained)
• Commuting by local trains? Don’t even try it.

Staying at the Taj is not a proxy for how the majority of Indians live, work, play and learn (yes, that’s an old Cisco marketing campaign slogan).

NOTE: If you are interested in downloading the BRICs report “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050″ you can download it here.

The above article was syndicated on Huffington Post.

Over the past couple of years an initiative by the Government of India has been gaining momentum which could have far reaching implications for its residents. In early 2009, the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) was setup to issue universal ID’s (UID), they have called the program “Aadhaar” which means foundation or support. However, most people still refer to the program as UID. This is the one rare initiative from the Government of India that excites me because it could help the people that need it the most – the poor.

Currently, most government aid programs are pilfered so heavily that at one point Rajiv Gandhi famously said only 15% of the benefits reach the poor. The Public Distribution System (PDS) distributes subsidized food and non-food items to India’s poor via a ration card that is issued. However, the ration cards get duplicated and “ghost” accounts are created, then the food is taken and sold on the open market. Even before the food gets to the recipients there is “leakage” all along the supply chain – transportation, warehouses and government officials.

The aim of Aadhaar is to create a central database and provide proof of identity when using government services. Aadhaar will be technologically advanced in that it will be a combination of a person’s iris scan, fingerprints, photo and optionally include demographical information such as age, sex, address, father, mother, etc. With an iris scan you can be sure that only the receipt of the food or cash-subsidy is receiving the benefit and not a middle man, which is often the case today. Aadhaar has an ambitious goal of issuing 600 million numbers in the next 4 years. The Aadhaar number will be 12 digits long and oddly enough there is no card, it’s a piece of paper with a number. Users would authenticate their identify via fingerprints and an iris scan hence no need for a smart ID card. Aadhaar will be useful in 5 areas – 1. food distribution via PDS; 2. National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) ; 3. health services; 4. education; and 5. financial services. Number 5 excites me the most since it might put an end to the poverty tax that so many citizens of India face on a daily basis.

The poverty tax is everywhere if you are poor in India.  If someone wants a loan they can’t goto their local bank because they don’t have the required documentation, which leaves them to the loan sharks where the interest rates charged would bring a tear of joy to any investment banker. When you receive money from someone you can’t put that into a bank account so you lose out on the interest that you might have received from a bank. If you receive a pension, you might have to pay a “fee” to the clerk to speed up the transaction. Same issue with food, subsided kerosene, government jobs, etc…if you want something you have to pay a fee.  That fee hurts more if you earn less and hence it’s called the poverty tax.

Financial institutions are thrilled at the prospect of Aadhaar because they can start to market their products to potentially 600 million new customers. With the large number of mobile phone users it also means that banks don’t have to setup branches in every corner of the country, they could use the mobile phone to keep track of balances instead of the old school passbooks. Near-field communications (NFC) is probably a couple years away from being adopted by the mass market but that is potentially another game changer in the way people transact in India.

Aadhaar would also streamline the plethora of numbers that many middle class people need to keep track of. If you are a taxpayer and an investor you might have several numbers such as PAN for taxes, TAN, TIN, MIN, DIN and folio numbers for investing in mutual funds. The reason for multiple numbers is because each group has a vested interest in keeping their numbering system because it creates jobs for them and more importantly they have access to the money flow. Knowing where the money is coming and going is a source of information that can be used against an individual.

For Aadhaar to work it needs to be made mandatory, currently it’s optional and that might be more of a political move. If Aadhaar was mandatory on day one then people would jump to the next logical step – using Aadhaar for voting. And changing anything to do with the voting process would absolutely disrupt the status quo and would be shot down by politicians in a heart beat. However, once end-users start craving for the “optional” Aadhaar then nothing would stop its mass adoption which would make it mandatory in the end. The second thing that needs to happen is that Aadhaar should be an acceptable form of Know Your Customer (KYC), this would help financial institutions, mobile phone providers or really any one that needs to authenticate an individual for a companies product or service. Since the government would have validated someones identity then why go through the process again, this would also lower the acquisition costs for companies and allow them to provide “no frills” type services.

Facebook Connect in the virtual world has turned into the de-facto standard for identify, whereas Aadhaar has the same potential in the real world for India. Aadhaar could be the catalyst to open up many more markets for companies and also bring products to a set of customers that have previously been excluded from financial services.

The above article was syndicated on VCCircle.com.

Update:
June 4 – View a quick 10 slide summary about Aadhaar (via SlideShare)
May 18 - India’s Poor Yet to Reap Full Benefits of Its Anti-Poverty Programs (World Bank report)
April 30 – India’s $9 Billion Jobs Program Fails its Poor (WSJ link)

The 8th edition of the Mumbai Marathon took place on Jan. 16. This was the 4th Mumbai Marathon that I have participated in and each year it gets better and better, not only from an excitement perspective but also my running time.

This year I completed the half marathon (13.1 miles, 21.1km) in 2:01:26, I was absolutely shooting for sub-2′s, but couldn’t pull it together during the last 4 kilometers to pickup some speed…next year.

My Mumbai half-marathon timings are:

2011 – 2:01:26
2009 – 2:07
2008 – 2:16
2006 – 2:16

What really helped me this year was using the RunKeeper app on my iPhone. RunKeeper was constantly giving me real-time stats on my run and I was able to speed it up or slow it down based on the information. I would highly recommend the program if you are planning to run a 5km or a full blown 42km marathon. You can see my RunKeeper stats for my 2011 run. The website tracks all your runs and aggregates the data and I can see this turning into a much bigger platform then it currently is.